[Kabar-indonesia] Energy Industry and Terrorism in Indonesia

[Joyo at aol.com]

International Relations and Security Network (ISN)
August 2, 2008

Energy industry and terrorism in Indonesia

With known militant organizations such as Jemaah
Islamiyah having the country in its sights, Indonesia
contemplates measures to protect its energy industry.

By Inggrid Panontongan

After much protracted wrangling, the latest
high-profile energy industry dispute in Indonesia has
come to an end. It was between the world's largest oil
corporation, ExxonMobil and Pertamina, the state oil
company over the allocation of rights to a massive oil
discovery in Cepu, Indonesia's largest oil discovery
in decades. It is estimated to have recoverable
reserves of as much as 600 million barrels of high
quality reserves and two billion barrels of
lesser-quality reserves. The field is also estimated
to hold 11 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The
dispute was resolved on 15 March 2006 after the
government's intervention, with ExxonMobil awarded the
leading role in the contract. The Cepu Block
disagreement attracted much attention, including from
the local Islamists who pushed a generally nationalist
argument.


Terrorist threat in international energy industry

Globally, terrorist targeting of the energy sector is
not new. The industry has been targeted as a quick and
symbolic means to pressure both national and foreign
governments as well as multinational corporations to
change policies. Interestingly it is only recently
that the full economic implications of terrorist
disruptions to pricing have been understood. The
so-called practice of incorporating "terrorism
premium" in basic price of oil has developed. This is
in anticipation of terrorist attacks on oil industry
infrastructure that will disrupt oil production,
resulting in the increase of the price of oil.

Targeting energy facilities has been an explicit part
of al-Qaida's strategy in recent years. But Osama bin
Laden was initially reluctant to use energy as a
weapon. In August 1996 bin Laden released a fatwa
urging the Mujahidins to protect oil and not include
it in their battles. He reversed that position only a few years
ago when he saw such attacks as an integral part of
the strategy to weaken the US and western economies.
However, he ruled out attacks on oil wells and called
for attacks on the infrastructure needed for refining
and transporting oil, such as pipelines and
refineries; employees of non-Muslim oil companies,
ocean-going tankers and sea ports. As Asia's primary
energy producer, and a member of the Organization of
Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC), it is reasonable for
Indonesia to be concerned over this global
development.

The 2002 attack on the SS Limburg was the first effort
to disrupt the oil transportation system. The full
development of this strategy appeared with the Abqaiq
attack in Saudi Arabia on 24 February 2006, which was
said to have been ordered by bin Laden. The foiled
attack was against the world's largest oil processing
facility. Two days following the attack, al-Qaida
claimed responsibility and threatened similar attacks
in the future.

Domestic threat in Indonesia

What are the implications for Indonesia? The negative
reaction to ExxonMobil's winning the Cepu Block case
illustrates the dangerous potential of such issues as
both Islamists and non-Islamists joined to protest the
decision. Both parties couched their objections on
nationalist grounds, opposing foreign involvement in
such an important national industry. The only
divergence was the more active playing of the US issue
by the Islamists.

Organizations such as Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia (HTI),
Majelis Mujahidin Indonesia (MMI), Front Pembela Islam
(FPI), Brigade Hizbullah and Gerakan Pemuda Islam
(GPI) held demonstrations in front of the US Embassy
in Jakarta, the American Presence Post (APP) in Medan
and the US Consulate in Surabaya, against ExxonMobil's
involvement in the management of Cepu block. The
Islamists also conducted massive media
campaigns on the internet where they describe in their
websites the US pressuring the Indonesian government
in order to expand their imperialism agenda.

The question now is whether such campaigns would
increase the terrorist threat against the energy
industry in Indonesia. The strong reactions from
organizations like HTI do not necessarily amount to a
terrorist threat as the aforementioned groups have
declared themselves to be 'political parties' with an
Islamic ideology. In that sense, they are different
from known terrorist organizations in Indonesia such
as the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). Therefore their protests
should be seen as non-violent action.

Islamist terrorist groups however need religious
justification for their actions. The fatwa or
religious edicts made by international or local
spiritual figureheads might influence them and provide
the cause for the more radical Islamists to conduct
attacks against the energy industry infrastructures in
Indonesia.


JI's aborted plan

In early 2005 Noordin Mohamad Top plotted to attack
the Paiton Power plant in eastern Java. The plan was
disclosed by the two JI members who were tried for
harboring Noordin. Noordin targeted the plant because
it is operated by foreign companies from the US, Japan
and Britain. The attack was intended to cause a
large-scale blackout on Java island, creating panic in
the region. The attack was eventually aborted because
JI could not make bombs powerful enough to disable the
plant.

JI is also believed to be planning terrorist attacks
in Indonesia similarly to those carried out against
non-Muslims in Iraq. The dependence of Indonesia on
the energy sector and the necessary involvement of
foreign expertise create a potentially dangerous mix.
The Cepu block dispute illustrates the potential for
tactical alliances and the possibility of JI regaining a degree
of popular support through attacking "foreign" targets
that at the same time undermine the national
government, without killing large numbers of
Indonesians. But as the Paiton operation illustrated,
destroying the infrastructure is not an easy task.

The Indonesian energy industry sector presents an
additional level of operational difficulty as it is
largely going to be offshore. But the threat remains
as judging from the past, JI has shown the intent and
capability to attack foreign and economic interests.
It currently only lacks the opportunity to do so in
the energy industry sector. The open question is
whether the opportunity will present itself.

[Note: This article was originally published by the
Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies (IDSS),
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore]

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Joyo Indonesia News Service
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