[Kabar-indonesia] JSX shares end morning higher [+Rupiah leads yen-inspired rally]
Joyo at aol.com
Joyo at aol.com
Mon Jul 3 03:29:36 MDT 2006
4 Reports:
- Jakarta shares end morning higher led by banks on
follow-through interest
- SE Asia Stocks-Indonesia up on rate cut hopes;
S'pore flat
- Emerging Asia FX-Rupiah leads yen-inspired rally
- Trade Idea -- Buy ringgit, Sing dollar and
yuan-JPMorgan
Jakarta shares end morning higher led by banks on
follow-through interest
JAKARTA, July 3 (XFN-ASIA) -- Share prices ended the
morning session firmer on follow-through buying mainly
in banking stocks, with investor attention focused on
the June inflation data to be announced later today,
dealers said.
They said the stronger rupiah also helped boost
interest in banking issues.
The composite index was up 3.508 points or 0.27 pct at
1,313.771 on volume of 406.846 mln shares valued at
572.871 bln rupiah.
The LQ45 index was up 1.181 points at 290.915.
Gainers led losers 42 to 32 with 47 stocks unchanged.
The rupiah was firmer at 9,140/9,150 to the dollar
compared to Friday's level of 9,260/9,270.
Muhammad Alfatih, an analyst with Sarijaya Securities,
said there was some leftover buying activity after
last Friday's sharp rise following positive comment
from the US Federal Reserve.
"But today, the market's focus is on the June
inflation data," he said.
Investors expect that if the rupiah continues to
strengthen, the possiblity is higher that the BI would
also speed up its interest rate cuts in the coming
months, Alfatih said.
He cited BI governor Burhanuddin Abdullah as having
stated, prior to last week's FOMC meeting, that the
Indonesian central bank is not only looking at the US
Fed's interest rate move but also on domestic factors,
particularly on the rupiah and inflation trends.
If today's June inflation data turns out to be
positive and the rupiah continues to strengthen, there
is room for BI to speed up its rate cuts, which would
ultimately be positive for the banking sector.
"That is why interest rate-sensitive stocks, such as
banks and automotive issues, were active this
morning," he said.
He said aside from the stronger rupiah, Astra
International shares were also higher on market
speculation that the company will report stronger June
automotive sales.
Bank Mandiri was up 10 rupiah at 1,730, Bank Rakyat
Indonesia was up 100 at 4,200, Bank Danamon was up 125
at 4,100 and Bank Central Asia was also up 100 at
4,200.
Astra International was up 300 rupiah at 10,050,
Telkom was down 100 at 7, 250 and rival Indosat was
down 25 at 4,250.
Perusahaan Gas negara was down 50 at 11,200, Medco
Energi was up 75 at 3, 800 and Aneka Tambang was also
up 25 at 4,650.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
SE Asia Stocks-Indonesia up on rate cut hopes; S'pore
flat
By Koh Gui Qing
SINGAPORE, July 3 (Reuters) - Indonesian stocks rose
on Monday as investors bet the central bank will cut
interest rates because of a stronger rupiah and hopes
of falling inflation, but Singapore shares were flat.
With gains led by banks such as Bank Central Asia,
Indonesian shares rose 0.27 percent. Philippine stocks
jumped 0.74 percent by the close, Malaysian shares
gained 0.32 percent and stocks in Thailand climbed
0.04 percent by 0515 GMT.
By the midsession close, Singapore's Straits Times
Index was lagging regional peers, down 0.05 percent.
Indonesia is due to release June inflation data later
on Monday.
A Reuters poll showed that analysts expect the
inflation rate to have held steady in June from May,
keeping pressure on the central bank to maintain
interest rates at 12.5 percent for now. Banks led
gains in Indonesia. Indonesia's second-largest lender
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk jumped 2.4 percent, PT Bank
Rakyat Indonesia Tbk, Indonesia's fourth-largest bank
rose 2.4 percent, and PT Bank Danamon Tbk, the
country's fifth-biggest bank, leapt 3.1 percent.
"The main focus is on whether BI will reduce rates
this week," said Manoj Nanwani, ABN AMRO research head
in Jakarta, referring to central bank Bank Indonesia.
"The market is saying that might be a possibility
because you have seen the currency strengthening in
the last two or three days," Nanwani said.
The rupiah rose to a six-week high of around 9,150 a
dollar on Monday, buoyed by dollar weakness and on
hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve is ending its
higher interest rate campaign.
Indonesia's largest automotive distributor Astra
International leapt 3.1 percent.
Blue chips led gains in the Philippines after Economic
Planning Secretary Romulo Neri said on Monday that the
country's gross domestic product might have grown 6.0
percent in the second quarter from a year earlier,
helped by a recovery in agriculture and exports.
Bellwether Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co., the
country's largest telecoms firm, jumped 2.5 percent,
while Ayala Land Inc, Philippines' largest property
developer, leapt 4.4 percent.
Losses in banks dragged down shares in Singapore. DBS
Group, Southeast Asia's largest lender, fell 1.1
percent, United Overseas Bank, Singapore's
second-largest lender, lost 0.6 percent and
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. was off 0.8 percent.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Emerging Asia FX-Rupiah leads yen-inspired rally
SINGAPORE, July 3 (Reuters) - The Indonesian rupiah
rose a percent as Asian currencies rallied on Monday,
buoyed by dollar weakness, after U.S. data on Friday
showed relatively tame inflation, and yen strength
after Japan's key tankan survey.
The yen hit a 3-week high of 114.10 per dollar as the
tankan survey of corporate sentiment heightened
speculation the Bank of Japan will raise interest
rates from zero next week.
That reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve,
which raised rates last week for the 17th consecutive
time in two years, may soon end its tightening cycle,
boosting Asian currencies.
The rupiah rose to around 9,150 a dollar, a six-week
high.
The South Korean rallied to a 4-week high near 943 a
dollar.
"Obviously, that strong tankan is very helpful. The
general dollar outlook has become softer after the Fed
meeting, the equity markets are recovering and money
is flowing back into the region," said Shahab
Jalinoos, currency strategist with ABN AMRO Bank.
"The short-term outlook is good," he said.
Heavy foreign investment into high-yielding Indonesian
assets were underpinning the rupiah, a trader in
Jakarta said.
But Jalinoos said the rupiah's outperformance was
understandable given its high volatility.
The rupiah's current daily volatility is more than 10
percent compared to about 5 percent for the Singapore
dollar.
"When the rupiah rallies it goes 3 times faster than
the others. It is just an inherently more volatile
currency," Jalinoos said, adding Monday's rally
therefore had little to do with anything going on in
Indonesia.
CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR
Change on the day at 0255 GMT
Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move
Japan yen 114.55 114.75 +0.17
Sing dlr 1.5817 1.5889 +0.46
Taiwan dlr 32.323 32.350 +0.08
Korean won 945.30 948.40 +0.33
Baht 38.07 38.17 +0.28
Peso 53.04 53.06 +0.04
Rupiah 9163.00 9262.00 +1.08
Rupee 46.03 46.03 +0.00
Ringgit 3.6590 3.6780 +0.52
Yuan 7.9935 7.9933 -0.00
Change so far in 2006
Currency Latest bid End prev year Pct Move
Japan yen 114.55 117.96 +2.98
Sing dlr 1.5817 1.6625 +5.11
Taiwan dlr 32.323 32.850 +1.63
Korean won 945.30 1011.60 +7.01
Baht 38.07 41.11 +8.00
Peso 53.04 53.09 +0.09
Rupiah 9163.00 9835.00 +7.33
Rupee 46.03 45.04 -2.15
Ringgit 3.6590 3.7790 +3.28
Yuan 7.9935 8.0702 +0.96
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trade Idea -- Buy ringgit, Sing dollar and
yuan-JPMorgan
SINGAPORE, July 3 (Reuters) - Investors should buy a
basket of Asian currencies comprising the Malaysian
ringgit, Singapore dollar and the Chinese yuan as
these are likely to benefit the most from rising
current account surpluses, JPMorgan Chase said.
Current account surpluses would matter most to
investors in times of risk aversion when portfolio
flows leave the region, as was seen during the
emerging market sell-off in May and June, JPMorgan
said in a note to clients.
JPMorgan said Asia's aggregate current account
surplus, which is on track to hit $260 billion in
2006, or 4.4 percent of gross domestic product, from a
year-earlier $245 billion, would support the
appreciating bias of most Asian currencies.
David Fernandez, JPMorgan's head of Asian economic
research, recommended a basket trade composed of 50
percent Malaysian ringgit <MYR=>, 30 percent Singapore
dollars <SGD=> and 20 percent Chinese yuan <CNY=CFXS>.
He said he would book profits when the ringgit hits
3.48 per dollar, the Sing dollar hits 1.55 per U.S.
dollar and the yuan rises to 7.8 per dollar, a total
gain of around 350 basis points on the trade.
That implies a five percent climb for the ringgit from
Monday's spot around 3.66, a 2 percent rise in the
Singapore dollar and a 2.5 percent rally in the yuan
from Monday's spot of 7.9940.
Fernandez said Malaysia's current account surplus in
2006 was likely to hit $18 billion, or 12 percent of
GDP, supported by continuing growth in exports,
tourism receipts and income from foreign exchange
reserves.
On Singapore, he said:
"With a current account surplus that hit a
jaw-dropping 28.5 percent of GDP last year, Singapore
is in a class by itself. However, with the FX rate
used as the primary operating target for monetary
policy, SGD will stay only on a modest appreciation
path"."
JPMorgan forecasts the yuan at 7.5 versus the dollar
by the year-end, up 6.5 percent from current levels.
Fernandez said in the note he sees no sign that
China's growing current account surplus -- which more
than doubled to $161 billion in 2005 -- will fall this
year.
The report said the direction of the Korean won
<KRW=>, Thailand baht <THB=>, the Indonesian rupiah
<IDR=> and the Philippines peso <PHP=> would be
determined by how their current account dynamics
played out, given that they were running a near
balance between surplus and deficit.
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Joyo Indonesia News Service
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