[Kabar-indonesia] ST: Yudhoyono's political future linked to state of the economy

[Joyo at aol.com]

The Straits Times (Singapore) 
Tuesday, July 4, 2006

Yudhoyono's political future linked to state of the
economy

Derwin Pereira and Azhar Ghani

INDONESIAN President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's
political future is tied to the state of the country's
economy, which is not growing fast enough to curb
unemployment.

Straits Times senior correspondent Derwin Pereira, who
spent a decade covering politics in Jakarta, said that
failing to repair the economy will make it hard for
the Javanese general to win re-election in 2009.

'Dr Yudhoyono rose to power in 2004 on a wave of
popular enthusiasm for change in Indonesia,' said Mr
Pereira, 39, ST's former Indonesia bureau chief.

'Unfortunately, not much has changed since. The
economy has emerged as his Achilles' heel.

'Inflation is rising, consumption patterns are
declining and investment flows into the country are
slowing down. Against this backdrop, 40 million are
unemployed.'

All of this was placing considerable pressure on Dr
Yudhoyono, whose receding popularity would hit his
efforts to use his personal popularity to win office
again, as he did in 2004.

According to a close adviser, the President's
popularity is now as low as 35 to 40 per cent, far
below the resounding mandate of 60.6 per cent he
received in the 2004 election, said Mr Pereira.

Observers have noted that this might force him to
reconsider seeking alliances with larger parties - a
strategy Dr Yudhoyono and his inner circle ruled out
in the last election.

Such alliances would be all the more necessary given
that other key players who ran the major parties might
return to the fray to contest the next polls.

These included ex-armed forces chief Wiranto, former
chairman of the People's Consultative Assembly Amien
Rais and Vice-President Jusuf Kalla.

Mr Pereira, who interviewed several key political
leaders in Jakarta recently, noted that it was early
days in the race for the 2009 polls.

But, he added, rival parties like Golkar and PDI-P are
flexing their muscles for a comeback.

Touching on the complex relationship between the
President and his deputy, ST Indonesia bureau chief
Azhar Ghani, 36, felt that Dr Yudhoyono has the upper
hand.

Citing the long time it took him to arrest a runaway
fuel subsidy Bill, Mr Azhar said: 'Dr Yudhoyono
disagreed with Mr Jusuf about how much fuel price had
to go up...despite Mr Jusuf's urgings, the decision
was only taken when the President was convinced and
ready.'

Despite the political uncertainties, Mr Aris Ananta,
senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast
Asian Studies, struck an upbeat note about Indonesia's
future.

Indonesians, he said, were glad that the country was
now an emerging democracy.

Having tasted freedoms they were unaccustomed to in
the past, they were not going to turn back, he said,
declaring that 'democracy is at the end of the
tunnel'.

Answering the question of who runs Indonesia, Mr
Ananta said that the country was now ruled by
everyone, given that many more now have a say in
charting the country's direction.

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Joyo Indonesia News Service
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