[Kabar-indonesia] SBY reconsiders PSI [+ST: From Piracy To Premiums In Strait of Malacca]

[Joyo at aol.com]

also: ST Editorial: From piracy to premiums; and ST:
China, Asean people ties get a boost

The Jakarta Post 
Saturday, June 24, 2006

Opinion

Containing China with PSI

Rio Jaslim, Jakarta

Although Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda
firmly rejected the United States' request that it
join the Proliferation Security Initiatives (PSI)
during the visit of the U.S. Secretary of State to
Indonesia last March, President Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono is having second thoughts.

After the U.S. Defense Secretary visited here on June
6, Yudhoyono asked the Defense Minister, the Foreign
Minister and the Coordinating Minister for Political,
Legal and Security Affairs to study the possibility of
Indonesia joining the PSI.

Since the September 11 terrorist attacks in New York,
the United States has promoted regional maritime
security in a number of ways, including promoting
anti-terrorism focused cooperation in Southeast Asia.
Two such initiatives are the Container Security
Initiative and the PSI.

PSI supposedly has the support of more than 70
countries, but its political support in the
Asia-Pacific region is relatively weak, with only
Singapore and Japan having publicly endorsed it. Many
Asian countries remain reluctant to be openly
associated with the program, fearing it may override
national sovereignty and freedom of navigation, and
not wanting to be tied to the U.S.

The main reason the U.S. wants to expand the PSI in
the Asia-Pacific region is the Straits of Malacca, one
of the most dangerous stretches of water in the world,
but also its busiest, with thousands of ships crossing
every day. The biggest issues in the Straits are the
threat to maritime security posed by piracy and
terrorism, and the nexus between the two activities.

Such a nexus remains unproved, but Southeast Asian
guerrilla and terrorist groups like Jamaah Islamiyah
and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front have possed
substantial maritime capabilities in the region since
2000. They use the sea to transport weapons, move
forces and raise funds, and they have become a
sufficiently clear threat for the U.S. initiate the
PSI and attempt to control movement in the Strait of
Malacca.

The U.S. also hopes that the PSI will have an affect
on the balance of power in the region, that it will
contain China's influence in Southeast Asia.

Since the mid 1990s, China's attitude toward maritime
security cooperation has move away from a belligerent
position characterized by an immovable stance and the
surety of the absolute value of sovereignty toward a
posture more favorable to discussion and dispute
management. In order to strengthen its defense and
support its new policy, the Chinese government in
March 2004 announced it would increase its defense
spending by 11.6 percent.

China's reorientation was most driven by its rapid
economic development. Since 1993, China has imported
large volumes of crude to satisfy local demand,
particularly from industry.

The International Energy Agency estimated that China's
fuel consumption in 2030 will be equal to that of the
U.S. today, and 58 percent of China's oil will be
imported from the Middle East, and will have to pass
through the Malacca Straits. Given its importance to
China's economic survival, Beijing's willingness to
protect shipping routes and sea lanes is hardly
surprising.

China's fast-paced economic growth and strengthening
defense capabilities place them in a position to
challenge America's leadership in the Asia-Pacific
region. This latent competition will likely prompt the
U.S. to adopt a strategy to contain China. This would
include controlling the sea-lines of communication and
strategic maritime checkpoints, such as the Strait of
Malacca, and thus indirectly controlling the movement
of raw materials and goods to China.

Thus, the real reason American wants to bolster its
presence in the region, and specifically the Strait of
Malacca, is to limit China's access to oil, raw
materials, technology and industrial equipment, and to
contain the Chinese influence in the region. Using the
threat of terrorism and piracy to strengthen the
Proliferation Security Initiatives is the most likely
strategy.

The writer is an analyst of international issues. He
can be reached at rjaslim at yahoo.com. 

-------------------------------------------------------

The Straits Times (Singapore) 
Saturday, June 24, 2006

Editorial

>From piracy to premiums

THE three littoral states which have charge of secure
passage in the Strait of Malacca are rather restrained
in proclaiming the success of their coordinated
patrols in reducing pirate attacks on merchant
shipping. Data kept by the Piracy Reporting Centre in
Kuala Lumpur, an arm of the global shipping industry,
show that the incidence was down by a third last year
compared with the year before. It has been relatively
plain sailing this year. In contrast the region's
governments frequently broadcast warnings of the
potential for terrorist strikes on container ships and
tankers, to amplify a threat perception painted by the
United States. There has been no such catastrophic
event. Underplaying success in thwarting piracy is as
ill-advised as repeating terror warnings in the belief
that keeping the vigilance message alive might
persuade shippers to invest in better shipboard
security than they already have.

Terrorism specialist Rohan Gunaratna advised in an
interview last year that hyping the threat could
invite attacks.

'Governments must be more intelligent and not give
ideas to terrorists,' he said.

This is no academic musing, as perception is relied
upon almost as much as hard attack data when London
insurers set the risk premiums

for merchant shipping. Remarkably the Lloyds syndicate
places the Malacca Strait in the same war-risk
category as Iraq and Somalia. This defies
comprehension. Ships carrying cargo are charged higher
for insurance cover. Who pays in the end? The
consumer, but of course.

Regional governments, shipping companies and the
world's largest tanker industry group have tried with
little success to get the syndicates to remove the
Malacca Strait from the offensive listing. As shippers
have pointed out, this is a misperception by
underwriters and reinsurers of a direct link between
piracy and terrorism. Insurers have maintained their
position that anti-piracy measures must be shown to be
effective and sustained over a period of time.

This is reasonable, as the London market does call the
shots in maritime insurance. So let the facts be
amplified.

This lends credence to a move by about a dozen
governments in Asia to set up a dedicated
counter-piracy nerve centre in Singapore. It will
complement industry efforts. Although nations'
security is the motivation, it is anticipated the
London numbers-movers will consider it appropriate to
review the strait's risk rating.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

The Straits Times (Singapore) 
Saturday, June 24, 2006

China, Asean people ties get a boost

Leong Weng Kam, Senior Correspondent

New 11-nation friendship grouping hopes to improve
social, cultural and trade ties

PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE ties between Asean and China are set
for a boost now that friendship associations from the
Asean 10 have come together to engage their Chinese
counterparts.

They will do so under the umbrella of a new
China-Asean 10 Plus One grouping.

Representatives from all 11 countries signed in
Beijing last month a declaration to promote more
people-to-people exchanges and co-operation in the
social and cultural fields.

The group also hopes to help boost economic, trade and
investment co-operation between China and Asean.

Mr Sia Yong, 80, out-going president of the Singa-Sino
Friendship Association, told his members about this
latest development at the association's annual general
meeting at the Tanglin Club last Sunday.

Mr Sia, who was one of the signatories to the joint
declaration, said the Asean group and China plan to
hold one conference a year, to exchange ideas and
foster friendship.

The first will take place next year in Brunei. After
that, friendship associations from the other Asean
countries and China will take turns to host the annual
event.

Mr Sia, a retiree and former vice-chairman of the
now-defunct Sim Lim Finance, said the first activity
will be a China-Asean Friendship Tour in October. This
will involve a 15-car motorcade which will go on a
two-month tour from Beijing, through Vietnam, Laos,
Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia before its
final stop in Singapore at the end of November.

Brunei, Indonesia and the Philippines are not included
because it is an overland tour.

Mr Sia told The Straits Times that signs of Chinese
friendship groups' growing interest in Asean first
emerged last year.

The Chinese People's Association for Friendship with
Foreign Countries (CPAFFC), an umbrella body for
nearly 360 friendship associations all over China,
approached him to conduct for its leaders short
courses with an emphasis on 'anything and everything'
about Asean.

The first batch of more than 30 Chinese officials will
be here for a week-long course on Asean at the Nanyang
Technological University early next year, Mr Sia said.

On Asean friendship associations engaging China as a
regional block from now on, the veteran activist of
Asean relations with other countries said this would
yield better results.

'It means activities can be organised on a bigger
scale with more resources and more people can be
involved too,' he said.

Mr Oh Bin Cheng, 69, vice-president of the Singa-Sino
Friendship Association, agreed.

'In the past, each country's friendship association
would deal with China individually. Now we work as a
team and I am sure this would strengthen unity among
the Asean members,' he said.

------------------------------------------ 
Joyo Indonesia News Service
------------------------------------------