[Kabar-indonesia] LAT: In Thailand, a New Model for Militants? [+Post-Coup PM; 'Cobra Gold']

[JoyoNews at aol.com]

also: Thailand gets post-coup PM, constitution;
and US mulling fate of Thai 'Cobra Gold' war 
games 

The Los Angeles Times
Sunday, October 1, 2006 

In Thailand, a New Model for Militants?

Muslim separatists' relentless low-level attacks on civilians are taking 
a heavy toll, but the campaign is largely unnoticed by the West.

By John M. Glionna, Times Staff Writer

HAT YAI, Thailand -- The bomb that exploded outside New Cherry Ancient 
Massage was among the most sinister kinds — a lethal sucker punch timed to detonate 
moments after two other blasts had lured onlookers into the streets of this 
tourist town. 

The homemade device, hidden in a motorcycle parked outside the busy parlor, 
killed five people, including a Canadian teacher and three masseuses. 

All 30 surviving massage workers quit on the spot. Within days, the parents 
of the three dead women came to take their daughters' bodies home.

"One father asked, 'Why my child? She was a good girl,' " said New Cherry 
owner Boonchai Sangmankung. "And I couldn't answer him. I don't know myself. Why 
do the attacks continue? Why are more innocent people killed every day?"

Since 2004, militants in Thailand's predominantly Muslim south have waged a 
bloody separatist insurgency against the cultural elite of this largely 
Buddhist nation, targeting teachers, monks, community leaders and government 
officials. So far, 1,700 people have been killed, yet the campaign of almost-daily 
bombings, arson attacks, kidnappings and assassinations has gone largely 
unnoticed in a Western world fixated on higher-profile Islamic terrorism campaigns in 
Iraq and elsewhere.

"The violence in southern Thailand is quite significant compared to many 
other world conflicts today," said Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political scientist at 
Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. "The U.S. lost 3,000 soldiers in three 
years in Iraq. This death toll is not far behind." 

International terrorism experts are keeping a close eye on southern 
Thailand's guerrilla war, believing that the attacks could become a blueprint for small 
insurgencies in the post9/11 world. The strategy of incessant low-level 
attacks against civilians could be imitated by other regional militants, they say.

Experts also fear that the insurgents could soon be joined by international 
terrorists slipping across Thailand's porous borders, bringing money, expertise 
and manpower.

"It's important that this regional war not escalate," said John Brandon, 
director of the Asia Foundation's international relations program. "The world 
cannot afford this war to become ripe for outside terror influences to take 
advantage of it."

A recent State Department report concluded that there was no evidence of any 
connection between the militants and global terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda 
or Jemaah Islamiah, based in Southeast Asia.

"There is concern, however, that these groups may attempt to capitalize on an 
increasingly violent situation for their own purposes," the report stated.

Under Thai rule since 1902, Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala, the three 
Muslim-dominated provinces at the heart of the violence, are distinct from the rest of 
Thailand. The people speak a different language — a Malay dialect — and 
observe a strict Muslim lifestyle not far from the jet-set crowd sprawled on the 
sandy beaches of Phuket, a draw for U.S. and European tourists.

Many Muslim residents still chafe over what they consider a century of 
abusive rule. But experts differ over the roots of the insurgency. Some say it's a 
battle over religious freedom, others say it's a fight for territory and 
self-rule. Still others say it's both.

But the tensions have filled daily life in Thailand's south with newfound 
risks — walking children to school, shopping in an outdoor market, driving at 
night. 

In the first six months of 2006, two people died every day, on average: A 
Buddhist teacher was gunned down in front of his fourth-grade class by men 
dressed as students. A salesman was beheaded outside a crowded teashop. The owner of 
an elephant troupe was shot seven times by assailants who had lined up with 
children to buy tickets for a show.

In August, 22 small bombs exploded nearly simultaneously in banks throughout 
southern Yala province, killing one person and bringing commerce to a 
standstill. Two months earlier, 50 bombs went off in a single day at government 
offices and police stations.

Last year, 15 militants stormed a Buddhist temple and hacked two monks to 
death before setting fire to their bodies. Thai officials believe that 30,000 
Buddhists have fled the south since the attack. Insurgents also have targeted 
fellow Muslims suspected of conspiring with a military known for its brutality in 
dealing with the Islamic militants.

For their part, Thai officials claim to be fighting a ghost insurgency: The 
killers don't issue claims of responsibility for their acts. Officials have 
little clue about the identity of the attackers. About 20,000 troops in the 
region have yet to arrest any insurgency leaders.

"The nation's best military intelligence concedes we are waging a war on 
ghosts," said Srisompob Jitpiromsri, a political scientist at Prince of Songkla 
University. "We don't have a clue as to who their leaders are or what they want."

Terrorism experts believe that the insurgency is led by a coalition of 
regional groups, including the National Revolutionary Front Coordinate and the 
Pattani United Liberation Organization, or PULO, which are vying for control of the 
region.

The two groups have developed cells in most southern villages and have their 
pick of disenfranchised youths eager to take part in the violence. But neither 
claims to control all of the region's militants, saying that religious 
splinter groups, warlords and business and political rivalries also play a role in 
the attacks.

"People on the street may know who is responsible, they may even know them, 
but everyone is too afraid to say anything aloud, or even speak in private 
about the attacks," Srisompob said. "That, to me, is the mark of a successful 
insurgency."

Mahkota Kasturi, a PULO foreign affairs spokesman in exile in Sweden, said 
Thai officials "know who we are and where we are, but they are reluctant to come 
to the table. Perhaps they do not feel they need to negotiate with so-called 
terrorists."

Experts say the militants eventually want to create an autonomous Muslim 
state in southern Thailand, where residents have long complained of being treated 
as second-class citizens, enduring the erosion of their language and culture. 
None of the three southern provinces, where Muslims make up 80% of the 1.8 
million residents, has ever had a Muslim governor, they point out.

Mahkota said separatists seek to disrupt Thai society as a way to win 
freedom. "The killings and the violence will continue until we reach our goal — and 
that is independence," he said.

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, deposed last month in a coup, 
had recently struck hard against the insurgents, imposing martial law that 
brought allegations of torture and counter-assassinations.

In 2004, nearly 200 Muslims were killed by security forces. First, 32 
militants died during the storming of a mosque in April. Six months later, a military 
crackdown on a demonstration against martial law at a regional police station 
killed scores. Seventy-eight men suffocated after being stacked five-deep 
into sweltering army trucks.

Thaksin has been replaced by Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratkalin, a Muslim who has 
pushed for a more conciliatory stance toward the insurgents. But within a week of 
the coup, attacks had killed four people and injured more than a dozen.

Experts doubt that the regime change will bring peace.

"If anything, they may step up attacks in an attempt to provoke a 
heavy-handed government response," said Zachary Abuza, a terrorism expert who has written 
a soon-to-be published book on the Thai insurgency. "The secessionist agenda 
operates on a time frame that you and I don't understand. For them, 30 years 
is not a long time."

The scope of the violence has widened since 2004. At first targeting civil 
servants, soldiers and police officers, militants soon included restaurants and 
businesses serving the military. Then monks and teachers came under fire; the 
death toll now stands at 49 teachers and six monks. Many attacks have been 
staged by men using motorcycles for quick escape. Bombs are usually detonated by 
cellphone.

Insurgents have made teaching the most dangerous job in southern Thailand.

In July, while his fourth-graders looked on, Prasarn Martchu was shot in the 
back as he stood at his blackboard instructing a morning class at a rural 
school in Narathiwat province. 

Principal Adul Jekyeng said Prasarn had taught for 25 years and was a leader 
in the local teachers union. He said four men rode up on motorcycles and 
passed several classrooms before they found Prasarn.

"He never saw his killers," Adul said. "They shot an unarmed teacher in the 
back. He had no gun, no weapon, only a piece of chalk."

Educators say teachers are seen by insurgents as authority figures and 
targeted because they are easy to find. Many, such as Phairat Saengthong, are 
fighting back.

The regional school director recently flew to Bangkok to buy a 9-millimeter 
pistol. 

"This is the model the U.S. soldiers carry," he said proudly, pointing the 
weapon around the room.

"Today, 90% of male teachers carry guns such as this, and even 30% of the 
women, which shows how fearful we have become. I may be a Buddhist, but now I too 
carry a gun. And I am not afraid to use it."

Sitting cross-legged on the floor of her home in a rural village in Pattani 
province, Chitra Ngen-Moon said she felt trapped in the crossfire between 
rebels and soldiers.

Her 29-year-old son, Anek, was killed last year. Friends found his beheaded 
body soon after he disappeared while on his rounds as the local tax collector. 
He is one of 10 men who have been killed in the village of 400 residents.

Holding a photo of her son, the 70-year-old woman vowed that one day she 
would know who was responsible.

"When all of this violence is over, I want to know who cut off the head of my 
son," she said. "I want to see these barbaric people with my own eyes. But I 
am an old woman. Now I am too afraid to ask questions."

Nearby, at the Krue Se mosque in Pattani, site of the deadly 2004 storming by 
the military, Haji Niseng Nilaeh said he did not approve of the violence 
being waged by either side.

"Every day, people die — it makes me unhappy," said the 77-year-old Muslim 
elder, dressed in a traditional tunic and sarong. "But the insurgents are not 
only killing Buddhists, they are killing fellow Muslims now as well. No one is 
safe."

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Thailand gets post-coup PM, constitution

By Nopporn Wong-Anan

BANGKOK, Oct.1 (Reuters) - Thailand's military rulers unveiled a stop-gap 
prime minister and constitution on Sunday, fulfilling a promise to step back in 
favor of civilians within two weeks of their coup against Thaksin Shinawatra.

In other signs of the situation stabilizing, the tanks that had stood outside 
Government House since the September 19 putsch rolled back to the barracks 
and four of Thaksin's most powerful ministers were released from army custody.

Shortly after television stations announced the interim constitution, army 
chief and coup leader Sonthi Boonyaratglin confirmed that Surayud Chulanont, a 
retired general, would be prime minister under a gradual plan to restore 
democracy.

"I went to his house and spent half an hour convincing him to take the job 
while the country is in crisis. He has agreed to take it," General Sonthi told 
reporters at a news conference.

Later, at a ceremony at Government House, Sonthi read out a short statement 
confirming King Bhumibol Adulyadej's approval of Surayud as Thailand's 24th 
prime minister in 74 years of democracy.

Surayud, 63, then announced that a new cabinet would be picked in a week. He 
said his government would focus on "people's happiness" above economic growth.

"We will concentrate on the self-sufficiency economy that His Majesty the 
King advocates," he told a news conference. "We won't concentrate so much on the 
GDP numbers. We would rather look into the indicators of people's happiness 
and prosperity."

Under the new constitution, he is charged with keeping the country and 
economy ticking over while a panel of eminent Thais draws up a new long-term 
constitution.

According to the generals' "democracy roadmap", this should take about nine 
months, at the end of which there will be a referendum and national elections.

MILITARY CIVILIAN

Although a career military man, Surayud -- until now a senior royal adviser 
-- has a reputation as a reformer who recognized the need to keep soldiers out 
of politics in a country which has now seen 18 successful coups.

The coming months could test his patience to the limits as he tries to 
convince Thais and outsiders he is marching the country back to democracy at the 
same time as keeping his old friends in the army happy.

Despite promises not to interfere, doubts remain about the military's 
neutrality, especially given that the coup leaders are staying on in the form of a 
Council for National Security (CNS) with the power to dismiss the interim 
administration.

"He has to keep the military in line, he has to seem legitimate and he has to 
avoid the appearance of being a stooge or being a puppet to the military," 
said Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

"He also has to get things done. This is a tough balancing act."

Having ousted Thaksin without a shot being fired, Sonthi promised to hand 
power to civilians within two weeks, a pledge that ensured domestic goodwill but 
failed to avert international condemnation of Thailand's first coup in 15 
years.

The interim charter guarantees basic human rights and sets up an assembly of 
2,000 eminent persons to start work on a long-term constitution, but it also 
enshrines the coup leaders' security role and their ability to hire and fire 
governments.

CALMING FEARS

Officials have tried to assuage concerns about the army overshadowing the 
return to democracy, saying the authority to sack the government is largely 
hypothetical.

"It is a power that is in reserve. I don't think they foresee a situation to 
resort to it," senior Foreign Ministry official Krit Garnjana-Goonchorn said.

Sonthi told Reuters on Friday the CNS would play a role only in security 
matters, such as tackling an insurgency in the Muslim far south where over 1,700 
people have been killed since 2004.

"I can assure you it is impossible that we will control the government," he 
said in an interview at Army Headquarters. "We will be the government's tool to 
keep peace."

He also said Thaksin, a telecoms billionaire who won election landslides in 
2001 and 2005 but now lives in exile in London, should not return to Thailand 
as the "domestic situation has not settled yet".

However, his four most trusted aides -- Deputy Prime Minister Chidchai 
Vanasatidya, chief of staff Prommin Lertsuradej, Prime Minister's office Minister 
Newin Chidchob and Environment Minister Yongyut Tiyapairat -- have been released 
from 10 days of army custody.

"It is the police's job to look after them from now," Sonthi said.

In one of the few signs of public opposition to the coup, a taxi daubed with 
slogans saying "Destroying the country" and "Die for the country" rammed a 
tank in Bangkok on Saturday.

The taxi was badly damaged and the driver taken to hospital with rib 
injuries. The tank was unscathed.

--------------------------------------------

US mulling fate of Thai 'Cobra Gold' war games

Stephen Collinson

WASHINGTON, October 1 (AFP) -- The United States is mulling the fate
of the annual "Cobra Gold" war games it co-sponsors with Thailand,
after stripping millions of dollars in aid from its ally over the
military coup.

With the Thai military reluctant to ease its grip on power, a US
Defense Department spokesman told AFP the annual live-fire exercise --
the biggest such US operation in Asia -- was under scrutiny.

"The Department of Defense is currently reviewing all of its
engagements to make sure they comply with government policy," said
Major David Smith, a Defense Department spokesman.

"They are looking at it."

The United States stripped 24 million dollars in military aid from
Thailand last week, in protest at the coup by top Generals on
September 19 which ousted civilian prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The sanctions jolted years of close links between US forces and
Thailand, a non-NATO ally.

Some aid deemed crucial to US national security was spared, notably in
the field of counterterrorism, in which the kingdom has emerged as a
low-key, yet valued partner in the US battle against Al-Qaeda.

"Cobra Gold" does not automatically fall foul of laws which bar the
United States from supplying aid to a foreign government which has
overthrown a democratic administration in a military coup, officials
said.

But the US military would likely face heavy criticism for going
through with an operation co-hosted with a military force instrumental
in overthrowing an elected prime minister.

Equally, however, Washington is unlikely to want to cede any ground to
other powers, especially China, which has been expanding its
diplomatic and military engagement in Southeast Asia.

The latest "Cobra Gold" exercise in May was the 25th and involved
forces from the United States, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia and
Japan, as well as observers from many other nations.

On Friday, Washington underlined its continuing concern over the
situation in Thailand.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack withheld formal comment on
reports that Thailand's ruling junta intended to choose retired
general Surayud Chulanont, 63, to replace Thaksin, pending
confirmation of the appointment.

"Somebody with close ties to the military is going to have to at least
overcome the perception that they are maintaining a close relationship
with the military and may be not acting in defense of Thai democracy,"
McCormack said.

The junta, with the backing of Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej,
pledged after the coup to appoint a new civilian premier within two
weeks to guide Thailand towards elections in October 2007.

But the military is instead now expected to appoint Surayud to serve
right up until the polls.

McCormack said the United States continued to watch developments in
Thailand "very closely: Who is appointed as prime minister, that
person's background, the policies that they pursue."

Coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin has indicated that the junta
will not be disbanded once the new interim leader is named.

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Joyo Indonesia News Service
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