[Kabar-indonesia] 2 Outlooks: RI Sept CPI up 0.3-0.60% vs Aug; Trade Surplus US$2.95-3.65B

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also: Outlook - Indonesia Aug trade surplus 
2.95-3.65 bln usd vs 3.44 bln in July

Outlook - Indonesia Sept CPI up 0.3-0.60 pct vs Aug; up 14.5-14.81 yr-on-yr

JAKARTA, September 29 (XFN-ASIA) - The consumer price index (CPI) in
September likely rose 0.3-0.60 pct from August and was up 14.5-14.81
pct year-on-year, led by gains in food prices, 10 economists polled by
XFN Asia, said.

The Central Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release the CPI data
on Monday. In August CPI rose 0.3 pct on the month and were up 14.9
pct year-on-year.

Six of the eight economists said inflation in September will likely
have been driven by higher food prices, as Moslems typically switch to
a costlier diet during the Ramadan month which began on September 24
this year. Typically Moslems eat richer, pricier foods when they break
their fast in late afternoon each day during the month.

However a number of the economists noted that softer crude oil prices
over the month should help offset some of the impact from food as it
will have lowered the cost of non-subsidized fuels.

'Recent oil price falls should alleviate some price pressures in the
transport and communications sectors,' ANZ economist Jasmine Robinson
said.

She was one of three economists who gave the lowest estimate for
year-on-year inflation of 14.5 pct.

Mandiri Securities economist Destry Damayanti said the expected spike
in food prices is likely to have pushed overall consumer prices up
0.55 pct from August.

'Towards the end of the month, food prices start to pick up due to
fewer food sellers in the market and higher demand for food, as the
Ramadan fasting month gets underway,' Citigroup economist Anton
Gunawan noted.

He added that some inflationary pressure may have also come from the
education sector, with costlier tuition fees and dearer rentals with
the new academic year having got underway this month.

Gunawan sees the CPI in September up 14.6 pct year-on-year and 0.44
pct month-on-month.

CIMB-GK economist Kahlil Rowter noted that food prices may have also
been pushed up by some supply bottlenecks in East Java as a result of
mudflows from a drilling site in an agricultural area that destroyed
crops and hampered transportation of goods from the area.

DBS economist Su Sian, who expects CPI to gain 14.8 pct year-on-year
said September inflation will still be partially skewed by base effect
as the government's fuel price hike last year was still 'washing
through the data.'

'The more interesting CPI story will probably be in October, where
there should be a significant year-on-year slowdown (in prices) as the
base effect from last year's fuel price hike dissipates,' she said.

Below is the list of analysts' forecasts:

1. ING - up 14.5 pct yr-on-yr; up 0.3 pct mth-on-mth
2. Action Economics : 14.5 pct yr-on-yr; up 0.3 pct mth-on-mth
3. ANZ - up 14.5 pct yr-on-yr; n.a
4. Bank Lippo - up 14.57 pct yr-on-yr; up 0.4 pct mth-on-mth
5. Citigroup - up 14.6 pct yr-on-yr; up 0.44 pct mth-on-mth
6. CIMB - up 14.69 pct yr-on-yr; up 0.50 pct mth-on-mth
7. Mandiri Securities - up 14.70 pct yr-on-yr; up 0.50 pct mth-on-mth
8. Danareksa - up 14.71 pct yr-on-yr; up 0.52 pct mth-on-mth
9. DBS - up 14.8 pct yr-on-yr; n.a
10. BII - up 14.81 pct yr-on-yr; up 0.60 pct mth-on-mth

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Outlook - Indonesia Aug trade surplus 
2.95-3.65 bln usd vs 3.44 bln in July

JAKARTA, September 29 (XFN-ASIA) - The country's trade surplus likely
came in between 2.95-3.65 bln usd in August, supported by continued
strength in exports, nine economists polled by XFN Asia said.

The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) is scheduled to announce the
August data next Monday.

In July the surplus reached 3.44 bln usd, supported by an all-time
monthly high for exports of 8.82 bln usd.

The economists believe that heady export growth continued in August
with estimates of between 16.4-27.37 pct year-on-year. In August last
year exports totaled 7.27 bln usd with the surplus at 1.79 bln.

The year-on-year predictions for imports though were far more wide
ranging varying from a drop of 1.5 pct to a rise of 7.2 pct. In August
last year imports reached 5.49 bln usd.

David Cohen, director of Asian economic forecasting firm, Action
Economics, said he expected August export growth of 20.2 pct
year-on-year with imports up 1.0 pct.

'It will be a continuation of the (country's) recent trend and is in
line with the pattern in region,' he noted.

He sees the trade surplus for the month, slightly below the July
level, at 3.3 bln usd.

Mandiri Securities Destry Damayanti also expects export growth to have
remained robust, and she is picking a 21.4 pct rise 'on the back of
strong global demand, particularly in China and the European
Community.'

However with imports seen up 7.2 pct, her trade surplus is the lowest
of those polled at 2.95 bln usd.

DBS economist Lim Su Sian meanwhile estimates exports grew 23.4 pct
year-on-year with imports up 4.6 pct in August.

'Commodity and coal prices were slightly lower year-on-year, but oil
prices were still quite firm, which should have helped the country's
exports,' she said.

Citigroup economist Anton Gunawan though has a less optimistic view of
export growth, seeing a rise of 16.4 pct, largely as a result of a
decline in prices of some commodities. He added that imports for the
month will have been soft.

'Imports of capital goods may still be subdued, as investment has
still not increased significantly,' he said.

Below is a summary of analysts' forecasts: trade surplus, exports, imports

1. Mandiri Securities - 2.95 bln usd; up 21.4 pct yr-on-yr; up 7.2 pct 
yr-on-yr
2. CIMB - 2.97 bln usd; up 20 pct yr-on-yr; up 5.0 pct yr-on-yr
3. Citigroup - 3.0 bln usd; up 16.4 pct yr-on-yr; down 0.5 pct yr-on-yr
4. BII - 3.11 bln usd; up 19.70 pct yr-on-yr; up 1.92 pct yr-on-yr
5. DBS - 3.23 bln; up 23.4 pct yr-on-yr; up 4.6 pct yr-on-yr
6. Danareksa - 3.3 bln usd; up 22.03 yr-on-yr; up 1.64 pct yr-on-yr
7. Action Economis - 3.3 bln usd; up 20.2 pct; up 1.0 pct yr-on-yr
8. ING - 3.5 bln usd; up 22.5 pct yr-on-yr; down 1.5 pct yr-on-yr
9. Bank Lippo - 3.65 bln usd; up 27.37 pct; up 2.36 pct yr-on-yr

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Joyo Indonesia News Service
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